So to set the scene it’s around 9:30 am on Saturday and we are up and ready to roll. Destination; the main pit at Caesar’s. We love this place because of the chill atmosphere, older dealers, and great player payouts in that you can split A’s up to 4 times, BJ pays 3 to 2, and you can surrender as well. But really, we mainly love this place because we win, and Lori normally wins big. There was nothing really spectacular happening. Lori survived a couple of shoes with little to write home for, but the third shoe was the magical one. About half way through that 3rd shoe (one that Lori cut, which is crazy because that normally isn’t a good thing) Lori starts her run. She wins the first 4 hands and now has her bet up to $125. So that’s a nice start, but nothing out of the ordinary. At this point she ups her hedge amount to $50 per hand. This is nice as she wins the next 5 hands and her bet is now up to $350. Excellent. Especially since the next hand is a BJ! Yes!

Lori continues to hedge and now is up the $400 and gets a double down opportunity. Now it’s not your normal 11 versus dealer 6. That could be something that is easy to pull the trigger on. However it’s a soft Ace (A4 vs.4) and this was something that Lori would not have done in the past, but this trip we talked about playing all of angles. This means you are playing it by the book, the whole book and that includes doubling on the right soft Aces, splitting small pairs versus dealer 2-6 (or 7), and just believing in doing the right thing. So there is a moment where the dealer pauses before he pulls out the cards, but eventually he busts and boom, winner $800. Now what’s great about that is that she pulls back $1200 and then puts another $50 up on her bet and wins the next hand as well. She wins two more hands and I am just praying for the shoe to end.

Well it finally came to the end after 13 straight wins. She played out the remainder of the shoe, which was only another 2 hands left, and then takes an inventory of the rampage and decides to go to the cage. Lori bought into the table with $300 and left with $2775. I would say that qualifies as “The Run”.

I was just playing a random game of my favorite iPhone app, 21 Pro, when it goes and deals the above hand…in real life to me this is worse than losing a hand. I would have been using Hedge Economics, I would have been jumping for joy to pull trip 21, and then only to watch no-one win… what an epic FAIL.

I think that it bears repeating that the over goal of the approach is to maximize your winning potential while minimizing your exposure; i.e. your bankroll!  So if you don’t play at a 6-8 deck manual shuffle table with about 2-3 other players all playing proper Blackjack, your expected positive return will be diminish. But you know all that, so now what?

When I tell people about the mechanics of hedge economics I get a wide range of looks from puzzled, to intrigued, to crazy enthusiasm.  Whatever the case may be, I almost always get the, “does it actually work?”  Well let’s look at the last four sessions that I had while in Vegas as a case study.

The first place that I sat down was Paris.  There was a nice mix of people and I settled down at first base with 3 other people at the start of a new shoe.  I started with $400 in chips and a $30 min bet.  I do this mainly because I like to be able to hedge up to $50 after a win and not be basically “stacking” my bet without pulling something back.  I talk in detail about this in the first post on hedge economics, so I won’t go over all of the reasons why, but the main increments of hedging after wins is a green $25 chip, or quarter.

The play was crisp and I got a lot of double down opportunities and got on a nice roll towards the later 3^rd of the shoe.  At the height of the run I was at around $1150.  Normally this would have been a good place to stop, but I was having a good time and just decided to ride out the rest of the shoe.  There were some more up and downs for the rest of the ride, but as the dust settled I got up from the table with $1047.  Not bad for the first run.

The next day I sat down at $25 table at Caesar’s with $400 and hopes of another little run.  I like playing at the main pit because they offer the best possible players odds and generally most people down there play straight.  So after about an hour and a half of nothing great there was a nasty little run of about 6 or so straight losses and bang I am tapped out.

That’s not unusual mainly because if you do everything right you are happy with about a 50/50 chance of winning.  The key is to really get the most out of the times that you are winning, and either minimize your losses or elongate your play.

Well I am not one to be deterred, so I sidled up to another table later that night and bought in again for $400.  Unfortunately for the home team the results weren’t that great.  I liked my tablemates, but 3^rd base left and was replaced by this woman who was playing scared.  She announces after the 2^nd time I watch her not take a card with 16 versus a dealer 10 card that she never hits 16.  I look at her and then look at my chips knowing that they will all be in the dealers rack before too long.  I was right and well I have no one to blame but myself.  I should have just gotten up, but I decided to roll with it.  Well “it” cost me my buy in.

So at this point I am down and don’t have much to say for myself other than I just need to find the right table.  And that table came late at Paris.  There was 5 people already seated and the dealer was shuffling so I said what the heck and I sat down with my usual $400.

Since it was late, Lori decided just to watch me as I had told her that I was only going to play a little bit and then we could go to bed.  She normally plays herself, but wanted to show me a little support.  How nice.

Well this shoe was hot from the jump.  I win the first 12 hands and frankly could have won even more if the guy on my left would have hit that soft 17 like he should have.  It was equally tough in that I had about $250 out there and a 20 in the hole so my stomach sank a little when the dealer turned a 6 card 21.  Dems the breaks as they say.

I decide to continue the ride it out and almost immediately got on another roll.  I won another 7-8 hands in a row and really had some nice BJ sprinkled in there and looked at my stack and decided just to cash out.  I didn’t even play an entire shoe and I cashed out with $1205 after tips and what not.

So what’s the bottom line?  I think that these 4 consecutive runs capture the essence of what happens on average in that when you lose you only lose what you are willing to wager (in my case I wagered my entire buy in each time) and when you win you can really max it out.  Now it’s important to note that you have to understand that when you are on a great run and then you have a couple of losses of your min. bet you have an opportunity to reassess and take your winnings off the table.  When you are on a negative run you don’t necessarily have to risk your total buy in, but you won’t lose more than you put out there.  These two points are equally important as you don’t want to sit at a table too long when you have won a bunch because you don’t want to give it all back, and you certainly don’t have to stick around to get your head kicked in if you are running bad either.

Just remember to always be getting on that roller coaster on the way up and don’t be afraid to get off before the point that everyone starts screaming!

Nevertheless, we are all playing blackjack at one of the handicap tables that are always sprinkled throughout a casino on a few blackjack pits.  You can recognize them because they are always low (like the old school sit down table top video games) and there is always a seat missing for someone in a wheel chair to roll up in.  Cool.

Our dealer had to be, no lie, 80+.  He was funny, but kind of crotchety.  Like, “I have survived WWII for this shit?” kind of crotchety.  It was glorious.  We laughed at him and each other while we were playing and 44even tried to get a picture on his first generation camera phone, FAIL.  However we were happy just playing and killing time.  This was mainly due to the fact that our dealer was slow.  I mean like mind numbingly slow.  But that was cool because we are all having a good time and he was telling jokes and just generally being old and ornery.

Now contrast this with the experience that Lori and I just had at Caesars. Lori was playing in the main pit off of the entrance (which has some of the best players odds in all of Vegas) and I was watching her and the roulette table next to her.  There were some crazy drunk people who claimed to have a “system” for roulette.  Of course it didn’t work, but I digress.

So Paul (the dealer) is a young man by comparison.  Seemingly in control of all of his motor skills, married, and even had a friend meet up with him during his break.  What he didn’t have was any semblance of speed by which to deal the damn game.  He was so deliberately slow that several players left out of disgust.  It was just so choppy and purposefully slow that it made it hard to even enjoy the “action”.  Now from a player rating standpoint this is a good thing because you are rated on the length of time you play versus your avg. bet size.  However there comes a point where it’s just too slow.  This was that point.

Eventually Lori made a little money and we had to bounce.  Paul was killing the Mojo, and we just had to find a new spot to start punishing Vegas.  That spot as it turned out, was Harrah’s. Thanks Paul for umm, nothing.

Now it’s up to me to make it happen for team, and I am certainly up for it.  It’s late and we find ourselves at the Venetian for some Black Jack.  One thing that is nice about the Venetian is that there are a ton of quarter tables.  So it is not hard to find a good spot to sidle up to.  I find one with two guys at it and I sit down at 3rd base.

The Guy at first is a nice guy from San Diego.  He has a good personality and keeps the table light as we all fight the good fight.  The guy in the middle is an older gentleman who looks like Jacques Cousteau, no lie.  He is smoking Marlboro Reds and doesn’t say much, although ironically he is actually French.

So nothing is too terribly crazy on the first shoe, but as we play into the second I notice some erratic play from Jacques.  He is betting checks ($100) and can’t seem to help himself when he is dealt 77’s.  It seems that he has to split 77’s no matter what the dealer shows.  OMG.  He does this twice against a dealer 10 and somehow he has $400 bets up each time.   Of course he busts out each time, and each time he reaches into his pocket and pulls out a strap bundle of $100’s.  He has gone through about $3k since I sat down and I am just beside myself because I hate to see anyone take a big hit, especially someone as nice as this guy is.

Miraculously I am actually winning amidst all of this sporadic play.  Normally play like that would be a death sentence.  Now the principles of  hedge economics are predicated on everyone playing it straight.  But I guess I have been living right because I am surviving and even thriving in this 77 tsunami.   I am up about $1k and Lori is watching this madness and can only shake her head.  Things are going so well that the dealer even over pays me.  He has been paying us quickly and hasn’t really been keeping his tray neat.  On one double down I have three quarters up and the dealer busts.  He pays me out with a check on the bottom of each stack.  That’s a nice $150 extra little bump.  Call it a bank error in your favor, or in this case my favor!

Well Jacques actually gets another 77 dealt to him and we all look at each other.  Of course he splits and I just put my hand on my head.  Somehow some way the dealer busts this time and we all win.  There is a general feeling of relief and a small amount of merriment.  With that, Jacques takes his leave and we play for only a little bit longer and call it a night ourselves.  Lori and I walk to the cage still up about a grand and we just can’t stop talking about Jacques and those crazy 77’s!

I decided I was going to make it happen were it all started about 6 years ago, Harrah’s.  Unfortunately, it didn’t work out like I wanted.  There was this guy playing to my left who was basically a boob.  He thought he knew what he was doing, and of course he didn’t.  He was staying on 16 vs. a dealer 10.  He actually doubled down with a 12 against a dealer 10, because he had a “feeling”.  Moron.  I left Harrah’s down another $300 and was bumming.

So we decided to go to the Venetian, where we are trying to stay in their good graces.  I only had one hundo left in my purse and it was an old Ben Franklin, you know back when he had a small head.  I was praying he could help me out, and he did.  I sat back down at the $1 Wheel of Fortune, the slot machine I had just sworn off a few hours ago. It was screaming at me with that familiar refrain, “Wheel… Of… Fortune!” I am just looking for a little play, not actually thinking that I could do much other than give them my last hundo.  I get some cherries, some bars, a couple of small spins.  As it is winding down and I have only about 10 spins left, I got to spin the wheel.  Donald said that he was not going to look as he was convinced of another big “30” or the like.  I said, “I am just looking for a couple of zeros”.  Wouldn’t you know it, I hit $400.  Yay! I finally won something.

Now I got something going.  We go to the tables and I am able to get my bankroll up to about $600.  Awesome.  Back on the train!  We go to the Wynn and have dinner and had back through the Venetian and I decided to play a little more blackjack before calling it a night.  I sat down with $300 and was able to go on an unbelievable run and cashed out with $1495!  It was all about the Hedge Economics.  I was able to get my starting bet of $30 up to $350 as I won 12 hands in a row.  Unreal.  It wasn’t even an entire shoe, but it was hot and I was hotter.  What a great ending to our first day. 

So Day 2 will start off with some Poker, so let’s hope for more of the same!  Did I mention that I love this town?

Winner Winner Chicken Dinner

A couple years ago I went to vegas for New Years and I had the privileged of learning how to play BlackJack properly from Don & Lori, who not only write on this wonderful blog but happen to be great help at the tables too.

Now I like BlackJack but there has not been a convenient way to practice, until now. Apple has a fantastic app store for the iPhone/iPod Touch and one of the free apps is 21 Pro. I had been searching for an app and tried a couple out, 21 Pro is the way to go. This is the simple convenient way I had been looking for.

Besides the basics of betting and giving you two cards the game also has game history, built in card counting that follows your game, and a cheat card in case you need to brush up on strategy.

I get to practice Don’s Hedge Ecomonics on my phone, it doesn’t cost me a penny, and I can make sure I practice not spliting 10s (thanks Don and Lori). All in all it is a great app, It doesn’t let you play multiple hands at the table but that is me being nit-picky. Lucky for me I get to put my practice to good use, 7 nights in the caribbean, won’t be free but hopefully I’ll have a better chance at the tables now!

Great, so let’s get into it and talk about getting rated.

One of the main reasons why I love Blackjack is it’s a game that involves people.  As you know from a previous post on tipping, having people involved when you are gambling is always a good thing.   When you are doing well, having a good time and generally in good spirits good things are going to happen.  This is where getting rated comes in.

Every time you sit down you need to put your player’s card on top of the money you are changing for chips.  Now if you are not playing @ $25 per hand then this really doesn’t matter as your play will not be rated highly in a lot of places, or not at all in others.  But if you are; then now you are in business.

So now you are getting your money “washed” and the dealer is calling over the pit boss to get your play in the system.  This is where the amount that you buy in at plays a roll in the calculations.  Getting rated early and often is the key to elevating your status and ultimately getting your piece of the RFB (Room, Food and Beverage) pie. The formula is a rough one, but basically it boils down to the amount that you sit down with, what your average bet is, how long you play, and what you leave with.  

Since you are going to be gambling anyways, you might as well start getting some of the comps along the way.  Those start with small discounts on food and better room rates.  As you move up the ladder, you will get free nights and they will even start giving you money to play with.  It’s a beautiful thing.

You should use your card every time you do anything, but when you are playing at the tables there is more opportunities for good things to happen because it’s the pit bosses who are actually determining what kind of player you are.  I have had pit bosses in the past put in larger starting amounts, long play times and just generally helping the players like me out.  This is not going to happen every time you sit down of course, but if you are practicing Good Karma, then good things will happen for you too! 

So saddle up pards and let’s get that cocktail waitress over, I need a drink!

I have another post on Karma that I am cooking up, but I can tell you that a properly toked (tipped) dealer can certainly make a difference in your session.  I can not tell you how many times I have been overpaid, paid on a tie, or just paid on a loss by a dealer who was looking out for yours truly.

Now I am not saying that they are actively trying to get fired, or that I am running some confidence game with a ring of dealers in Vegas or anything.  That’s just not the case.

What I can say is that I have made eye contact with a dealer on a number of occasions as they made a simple mistake, and they just keep moving the game forward.  You see, they don’t care if you take every last chip from their tray.  It’s not their money, and many of them will tell you just that.  So think of it as a bank error in your favor, just like in the monopoly game of your youth.  Only this time its real money and it’s nice when it happens to you.

I can also tell you how many times I have been shorted; and that would be only once.  It was an honest mistake and we had moved on to the next hand when someone else mentioned it.  The dealer felt terrible and wanted to roll the game back and called the pit boss over and everything.  I told her it was fine and that things happen, and they do.  But I can honestly say they are much more likely to benefit you than not.

Of course it helps if you are tipping like you should (more on that in another post) and if you are at a table with a dealer that is friendly and engaging.  So let’s get to it!

5. Caesars Palace –

We play in the “old” pit in the Forum Casino near the hotel registration area.  This is where you have the best odds for playing and the dealers are generally much older and are really the salt of the earth.  A lot of them have been dealing for years and many of them have stories of Vegas from “back in the day”.  I have had many great times in this pit just listening to some vintage Vegas vets turn a card or two.

4. New York New York–

This used to be a young a hip place to play that was a bit too smoky at times.  That was fine because the dealers were fun and we used to pull a lot of money off of the tables.  However they are currently going through a renovation and everything looks like crap right now.  There is almost no gaming floor left, and they didn’t have a lot to start with.  Hopefully they can make a comeback for next year’s poll, but as of right now they are 4th purely on legacy.

3. The Venetian –

As our level of play has increase over the years, we have found ourselves playing more and more in the Venetian, which is a good thing.  There are so many tables that you never have to hunt around to find a home.  They rate your play pretty well and the dealers have for the most part been great; fast when you need them to be and slow when it’s hurting.  A class act all the way.

2. Harrah’s –

This one tugs on the heart strings as you never forget your first.  Lori and I stayed at Harrah’s for New Year’s in 2003 and it was the right fit for us.   They had lower limits and some of the nicest dealers around.  We were in Vegas for like 6 days (way too long when you have no concept of money management) and they all knew us on the 2nd day by name.  Lori was actually sick that trip and I still remember Arlene asking me about how Lori was feeling.  It was startling and I remember her to this day, some 5 years and 30+ Vegas trips ago.

1. Wynn - 

Now I don’t think that I have won a dime at the casino from the moment it has opened, but I love playing there.  Everyone (and I mean everyone) is so damn nice that you just want to kill yourself.  Everything just smells good and everyone looks good.  Not that it should matter, but a well put together dealer just sets the mood just right.

So there you have it.  Lori and I don’t play downtown or at local casinos so it’s not a definitive list by any means.  But for the average Vegas visitor going to the strip, you can not beat the group for the best dealer experience around.

Remember, results may vary and check with your doctor before starting any vigorous activity. 

The reality is, to be a truly profitable blackjack player you have to either be a card counter or not play at all.  Since we are not trying to get thrown out of a casino, let’s assume that you are not going to count cards and you will in fact belly up to the table and plunk down your hard earned cash.  Trust me, it’s even more fun when you know what you are doing!

To start, I am going to assume that you know basic strategy.  If you don’t, or need a quick refresher, you can go to this site that lays out everything you need to know to get you to the point for which we can start talking.

So let’s get started.

In order to understand the nature of this game you have to think about it as a 50/50 proposition.  If you play basic strategy you will have a great opportunity to win the individual outcome or hand.  Now just like a coin toss, sometimes you are going to win and sometimes you are going to lose.  But within a session there are streaks, and it’s those streaks that you have to exploit.

Before I get too far along I want to set the circumstances for which you should be playing.  You need to find a table that is the highest limit that you are comfortable with.  Meaning, if you can afford to sit down at a table with $300 or $400 then you can play at a $25 level (or $50 if you are frisky).  The reason for this will be explained later.  You must also try and find a table that has a manual dealer shoe.  It should look something like this:

This is key because you will need the break in the action.  Blackjack is a very fast game and when it’s going bad you will be thanking the gambling Gods when the dealer has to yell back to the Pit Boss, “shuffle check!”  It’s also important because basic strategy assumes a certain amount of decks (of cards) in the shoe.  If you are playing on a table with an automatic shuffler, things are constantly changing.  So consquently the times that the cards are favoring the players are often greatly diminished.  Plus there are other theories on that, but I won’t get into them right now.  Just look for a table with a shoe and you are in.

So now you have a table and some people who look like they know what they are doing and you are ready to play.  As I said before, this game is a streaky one and you have to ride the good streaks and get off when it’s going bad. And that brings me to the heart of the strategy: betting.

The key to Blackjack is the betting; more to the point hedging your bet. I can not stress this enough.  You have to be able to take your winnings and constantly push up your bet for the next hand.  Not everything, but a good amount because when you are on a roll you want to maximize your output.  When you are losing you are only ever losing the table minimum.  This is why you must find the table and limit that you are comfortable with.  Let me illustrate.

You sit down at a $25 table with $400.  (The $25 limit is a piviotal one because that is the level when the Casinos actually start to pay attention to your play.  I will elaborate on that in another post, just know that getting rated is a very good thing.)

Your first bet is $30, I know you are saying that you want to bet the min, but trust me on this one $30 is the bet.  Now something crazy happens and you win.  Awesome, congratulations!  You are a winner!  Now the dealer is going to pay you $30 right next to the $30 you just bet.  Great. So for your next bet you put $50 out in the circle. At this point you have pulled $10 of profit off of the table. Here it is broken down:

$400 – $30 = $370 at the start of the first hand.

$30+$30+ 370 = $430 after winning that first hand.

$430- $50 (second bet)= $380 at the start of the second hand.

Things are now cooking and you win the next hand. Now you win $50 and that is paid out right next to your $50 bet.  The next hand out, you increase your bet to $75.  Now you have completely covered your initial exposure of $30 (your original bet) and a total profit of $5.  But wait, you still have that $75 bet for the next hand.  If you win that next hand you are really playing with the house money!  That is pure profit and all sorts of great things happen at this point.  You keep this pattern going until you get to $125; at that point you increase your bet at $50 per consecutive win.  When you get to $250 then you can increase your bet by $75 or $100 (a “check”) until the cows come home!

It’s important to understand that at any time you lose you take you bet down to the minium of $30.  There will be a large temptation to put a big bet up there after you have lost a hand where you had $150 bet, but don’t.  You are throwing your profits away because just as quickly as you can win 5,8,10 hands in a row you can certainly lose that many.  So the key is to only lose a small amount when you are losing and win as much as you can when you are winning.

So many times I have been playing with people who always bet the minimum and never increase their bet.  They will win 10 hands in a row and actually end up losing all of their money because they will just keep playing and playing and eventually lose it all back to the casino.  The game is basically a coin flip, so when you are on the plus side, you really need to be taking advantage of the situation.

This brings me back to the importance of that dealer shoe.  You need that chance to actually win.  You need the opportunity to have that break in the action and reassess.  When you have made a good profit you should leave.  There are so many blackjack tables in Vegas that there is no reason to be married to any one table.  If you have been taking a beating, maybe it’s a good time to grab a snack or something.  Move to a new location and start again.  This game is like a wave; you always want to get out when you are going up and don’t stay too long or it will all come crashing down.

This is obviously going to be a multi-installment post.  More on this to come.